by Kraneshares
KRBN
KCCA
3/31/2026
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Krane Funds Advisors, LLC is a specialist investment manager focused on China, Carbon, Climate, and other uncorrelated assets. KraneShares seeks to provide innovative, high conviction, and first to market strategies. The firm was founded in 2013 and manages for institutions and individuals globally. In 2017, KraneShares formed a strategic partnership with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) when they acquired a majority ownership stake. The firm is a signatory of the United Nations-supported Principles for Responsible Investment (UN PRI).
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KRBN — KraneShares Global Carbon Strategy ETF
KCCA — KraneShares California Carbon Allowance Strategy ETF
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Global Compliance Carbon Markets: Structure Explained — Yushuo Yang, CFA
Are California Carbon Allowances an Attractive Investment?
Carbon Hunters: Reflections and Forecasts of Climate Markets in the 21st Century — Richard Sandor, Paula DiPerna (World Scientific)
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| Cap-and-Trade/Emission Trading System (ETS) | Carbon Offset | |
|---|---|---|
| Unit Type | Permit to emit one metric ton of CO2 | Verified reduction of one metric ton of CO2 |
| Purpose | Reduce emissions over time for specified regions/industries through a declining annual cap and additional supply adjustment mechanisms | Balance an entity's carbon footprint by investing in projects that reduce or remove emissions |
| Examples | EU ETS, California Cap-and-Trade, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), UK ETS, Washington state C&T, New Zealand ETS | Building wind turbines or solar farms, supporting methane reduction projects, reforestation, preserving mangroves, carbon capture and storage technology |
| Participation | Mandatory (Compliance) | Voluntary |
| Issuer/Oversight | Central governments and states, government agencies, nonprofit corporation | Issuers are project developers. Oversight is provided by NGOs/independent verification entities. |
| Market Size | $900 billion | $1.4 billion |
| Project-based | No | Yes |
| Credit Sale | Purchased at auction or (if an entity qualifies) allocated for free | Bought directly from project developers or broker/intermediary |
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Emissions Trading System (ETS), or Cap-and-invest, is a government mandated & regulated, standardized, liquid market valued at $900B in 2025, while the offsets market consists of non-standardized carbon reduction/removal projects collectively worth $1.4B.
Emissions Trading System: Capped Emissions (Compliance Market)
Mandatory participation for specified industries
KraneShares/CliFi models show that 2026-27 is the year we see allowance surpluses going into deficit in certain defined markets.
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Programs shown on global map include: In force (38), Under development (14), Under consideration (8)
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Low end: Fuel switching, power generation, and renewable technologies already developed at scale
Middle end: Improved agricultural land and crop management practices, buildings' energy efficiency and energy and material efficiency in industry
High end: Heavy industry de-carbonization
Categories shown:
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| European Union ETS | California Carbon Allowance (CCA) Market | United Kingdom ETS | Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) — Northeast US Power | Washington State Carbon Allowance (WCA) Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start of Operation | 2005 | 2012 | 2021 | 2009 | 2023 |
| Region | EU + Iceland, Liechtenstein & Norway | California linked with Quebec | United Kingdom | 10 Northeastern US states | Washington State |
| Regional Emissions Coverage | 45% | 80% | 25% | 14% | 70% |
| Cap | 1,209.3 MtCO2e | 303.08 MtCO2e | 81.5 MtCO2e | 78.5 MtCO2e | 49.0 MtCO2e |
| Annual Cap Reduction Rate | 4.3% (2024-27), 4.4% (2028-30) | ~4% (2021-2030) | Consistent with net zero by 2050 | ~3% of the 2020 cap (2021-2030) | 7% (2023-2026) |
| Annual Traded Volume (2025) | $782.1B | $57.5B | $53.4B | $11.8B | $2.2B |
| Total Revenue (Cumulative 2024) | $206.0B | $27.0B | $18.7B | $7.1B | $2B |
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Overall, 62% drop in the allowance limit from 2005 levels by the end 2030
Accelerates annual allowance cap reduction rate to 4.3% in 2024, and 4.4% in 2028, up from current 2.2%
Cut to emissions cap: -90 million in 2024 & -27 million in 2026
REPowerEU €20B initiative funded from frontloading EUAs & Innovation Fund
Lowered price-hike mechanism to automatically release 75 million allowances from the reserve if, for over six months, the average EUA price is higher than 2.4 times the preceding 2 years. (previously had been 3x). Provides protection from an excessive rise in the price EUAs over a short period of time.
CBAM CO2 tax on imports Starting in 2026
Phase-out of free allowances incrementally starting in 2026, 48.5% phased out by 2030 and complete phase-out by 2034
"ETS 2": new, separate market for building heating & road transport starting in 2027
Social Climate Fund starting in 2026, funded primarily from the ETS 2 and 25% from participating EU countries
Inclusion of maritime emissions: gradual emissions coverage of shipping sector: 40% by 2024, 70% by 2025, 100% by 2026
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Chart shows Annual Net Supply / Demand, EU ETS Cap, and Cumulative Surplus from 2008 to 2030.
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| 2026 | 2028 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNEF | €88 | €112 | €147 |
| Macquarie | €91 | €100 | €105 |
| Energy Aspects | €97 | €115 | €116 |
| Morgan Stanley* | €97 | €121 | €124 |
"[The EU ETS] is the jewel and the workhorse of our climate strategy"
"We are not too worried about the ETS price … not long ago people on this panel were worried it was too high"
-- Kurt Vandenberghe, Director-General of European Commission's climate arm
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Chart shows EUA price history and forecast (EUR) from 2018 to 2030, with key phases annotated:
Chart shows Annual Net Supply / Demand, EU ETS Cap, and Cumulative Surplus (MtCO2e) from 2018 to 2030, with the same key phases annotated.
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| Policy Highlights | AB 398 (Current) | AB 1207 (2025) | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extension | Cap-and-trade authorized through 2030 | Cap-and-invest extended to 2045 | 20-year price signal and underscores the state government's commitment to long-term decarbonization |
| Offsets | Offset use limited to 4% of obligation | Same limits: max 6% of obligation (up from 4% in 2021-2025) with existing 50% limit on non-DEB (in-state Direct Environmental Benefit) projects but places offsets "under the cap" + potentially include removals | Tightening effect on supply as it could mean a considerable reduction of the allowance supply each year. Offset use could be roughly 203Mt between 2031 and 2045 compliance years, according to ClearBlue Markets |
| Free Allocation & Carbon Leakage | Free allocation to natural gas companies but requires increasing compliance consignment at auctions | Starting in 2031, CARB must distribute industrial sector allowances based on minimizing leakage risk. Allocations should also support the transitioning of gas corporations to electrical distribution utilities | Helps address leakage as previously free allocations were handed out similarly across sectors regardless of leakage risk |
| Cost Containment Reserves | The floor, tier levels, and ceiling increase by 5% plus inflation annually to serve as price stabilization mechanisms | CARB can adjust the APCR and/or the price ceiling, if it believes the CCA price is rising too quickly and not protecting the interests of CA consumers – helps address the concerns of the Senate, which wanted to reduce the price ceiling | Addresses affordability concerns – If the reserve is fully depleted, pricing ceiling units can be sold with revenues from the sale deposited into the new California Mitigation Fund, which provides direct rebates and investments to reduce household energy costs. Waiting on clarity from the reform for CARB's final policy proposal |
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Chart shows Annual Net Supply / Demand, WCI Cap, and Cumulative Surplus (MtCO2e) from 2013 to 2035, across four compliance periods:
California operates under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), which administers the shared emissions trading market between California and Québec.
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Chart shows CCA price history and forecast from 2019 to 2035, with price rising from ~$20 to a projected ~$130+ by 2035.
Chart shows Annual Net Supply / Demand, WCI Cap, and Cumulative Surplus (MtCO2e) from 2019 to 2035. The cumulative surplus peaks around 2026 and then declines sharply into deficit territory.
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The price floor and ceiling levels shape the California carbon allowance (CCA) investment opportunity
Chart shows CCA price trajectories from 2019 to 2030, including CCA Futures, Current Auction Settlement Price, Auction Reserve Price / Floor, Price Ceiling, Forecasted Floor Price, Forecasted Price Ceiling, Tier 1, and Tier 2.
| Forecaster | Forecast | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| BNEF | $68 by 2030 | Based on their base case scenario, $74 in high emissions scenario |
| Veyt | $87 by 2030 | Based on program's extension and the incorporation of the new way of structuring offsets that makes for tighter emission caps in the long run |
| Clear Blue Markets | $86 by 2030 | Based on the assumption that prices will hit the Tier 1 level |
| Macquarie | $71 by 2030 | Based on market tightness expected from 2027 onwards, with deeper inventory draws occurring later in the decade due to backloaded Annual Cap cuts |
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Chart shows CCA price trajectories from 2025 to 2045, including:
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Chart covers price projections from 2025 to 2035.
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July 31, 2014 – December 31, 2025
| Year | EUA volume (billions) | UKA volume (billions) | CCA volume (billions) | RGGI volume (billions) | WCA volume (billions) | Total volume | EUA YoY growth | UKA YoY growth | CCA YoY growth | RGGI YoY growth | WCA YoY growth | Total growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 782.1 | 53.4 | 57.5 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 907.0 | 13% | 77% | -21% | -14% | 42% | 12% |
| 2024 | 690.4 | 30.2 | 72.8 | 13.6 | 1.6 | 808.5 | 2% | 6% | 40% | 142% | - | 5% |
| 2023 | 680.0 | 28.5 | 52.1 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 766.3 | 8% | -13% | 17% | -3% | - | 8% |
| 2022 | 628.9 | 32.8 | 44.5 | 5.8 | - | 712.1 | -4% | 88% | 1% | 77% | - | -1% |
| 2021 | 652.0 | 17.5 | 43.9 | 3.3 | - | 716.7 | 159% | - | 108% | 120% | - | 161% |
| 2020 | 251.8 | - | 21.1 | 1.5 | - | 274.4 | 23% | - | 44% | 10% | - | 24% |
| 2019 | 205.0 | - | 14.7 | 1.4 | - | 221.0 | 36% | - | 116% | 35% | - | 39% |
| 2018 | 150.8 | - | 6.8 | 1.0 | - | 158.6 | 354% | - | 31% | 81% | - | 307% |
| 2017 | 33.2 | - | 5.2 | 0.6 | - | 39.0 | 11% | - | 56% | -57% | - | 13% |
| 2016 | 30.0 | - | 3.3 | 1.3 | - | 34.6 | -31% | - | -12% | -1% | - | -28% |
| 2015 | 43.2 | - | 3.8 | 1.3 | - | 48.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2014 | 44 | - | 0.3 | - | - | 44.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
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Aug 31, 2014 – Mar 31, 2026
| Carbon Allowances* | Equities | Bonds | Commodities | Real Estate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Return (%) | 17.64% | 12.97% | 1.95% | 1.56% | 6.47% |
| Annualized Volatility (%) | 27.13% | 14.73% | 4.82% | 22.19% | 17.64% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Correlation | US Equities | Bonds | Commodities | Real Estate | Gold | Oil |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon Allowances* | 0.298 | 0.045 | 0.258 | 0.214 | -0.062 | 0.230 |
| EUA | CCA | RGGI | UKA | WCA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUA | 1 | ||||
| CCA | -0.012 | 1 | |||
| RGGI | 0.069 | 0.154 | 1 | ||
| UKA | 0.476 | 0.084 | -0.049 | 1 | |
| WCA | 0.204 | 0.171 | -0.010 | 0.025 | 1 |
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| Portfolio Model | Annual Return | Volatility (Risk) | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Bonds | 1.95% | 4.82% | 0.02 |
| 100% Stocks | 12.97% | 14.73% | 0.77 |
| 100% Carbon | 17.30% | 27.10% | 0.65 |
| 60% Stocks, 40% Bonds | 8.68% | 9.71% | 0.71 |
| 60% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 10% Carbon | 10.51% | 10.56% | 1.00 |
| 50% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 20% Commodities | 7.84% | 10.24% | 0.78 |
| 80% Stocks, 20% Carbon | 14.46% | 14.36% | 1.02 |
(Aug 31, 2014 – Mar 31, 2026)
Blended Portfolios Return and Volatility chart shows that adding carbon (10% Carbon blend) improves the return/volatility profile compared to blended stocks/bonds or 10% commodities allocations.
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KRBN — KraneShares Global Carbon Strategy ETF
KCCA — KraneShares California Carbon Allowance Strategy ETF
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The KraneShares Global Carbon Strategy ETF (KRBN) is benchmarked to the S&P Global Carbon Credit Index, which offers broad coverage of cap-and-trade carbon allowances by tracking the most traded carbon credit futures contracts. The index introduces a new measure for hedging risk and going long the price of carbon while supporting responsible investing. Currently, the index covers the major European and North American cap-and-trade programs: European Union Allowances (EUA), California Carbon Allowances (CCA), the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), United Kingdom Allowances (UKA), and Washington State Carbon Allowances (WCA).
Climate Finance Partners serves as the sub-adviser of the Fund. Climate Finance Partners delivers innovative climate finance solutions and investment products to address capital needs for emerging environmental challenges. CLIFI is led by a team of investment professionals with deep experience in the fields of traditional investment and environmental finance.
| 3 Mo | 6 Mo | Since Inception | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | Since Inception | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fund NAV | -16.37% | -16.37% | 115.46% | 6.82% | -4.08% | 8.70% | 14.49% |
| Closing Price | -16.13% | -16.13% | 115.87% | 7.22% | -3.95% | 8.52% | 14.52% |
| Index | -16.31% | -16.31% | 128.60% | 8.23% | -2.64% | 10.05% | 15.69% |
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| Carbon Allowance | Identifier | Position | Current Exposure($) | % NAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Union Allowance (EUA) 2026 Note | US36255HES31 | 814 | 68,033,411 | 51.67% |
| California Carbon Allowance (CCA) Vintage 2026 Future | KBCZ26 Comdty | 1,214 | 35,048,180 | 26.62% |
| European Union Allowance (EUA) 2026 Future | MOZ26 Comdty | 100 | 8,354,649 | 6.35% |
| Washington Carbon Allowance (WCA) Vintage 2026 Future | WKDZ26 Comdty | 110 | 7,767,100 | 5.9% |
| Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) Vintage 2026 Future | RGYZ26 Comdty | 259 | 7,456,610 | 5.66% |
| UK Allowance (UKA) 2026 Future | UKEZ6 Comdty | 94 | 5,150,464 | 3.91% |
| Total | 131,810,415 | 100% |
| Holding | Identifier | Position | Current Notional($) | % NAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KraneShares Sustainable Ultra Short Duration Index ETF | 500767355 | 3,374,500 | 84,463,735 | 64.15% |
| European Union Allowance (EUA) 2026 Note | US36255HES31 | 41,677,000 | 25,868,956 | 19.65% |
| Euro FX Futures | ECM6 Curncy | 130 | 18,826,438 | 14.3% |
| EURO | EUR | 5,994,970 | 6,907,444 | 5.25% |
| State Street Institutional U.S. Government Money Market Fund | GVMXX | 6,723,142 | 6,723,141 | 5.11% |
| BRITISH STERLING POUND | GBP | 2,427,360 | 3,200,971 | 2.43% |
| USD Cash & Equivalents** | USD | -14,254,356 | -14,254,356 | -10.83% |
| Total | 131,736,328 | 100% |
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The EU ETS is the oldest emissions cap-and-trade program, first launched in 2005. It covers ~40% of the total EU emissions, including activities from the power sector, manufacturing industry, and aviation (including flights from the EU to the United Kingdom). In 2020, Switzerland linked with the EU ETS.
| Start of Operation | 2005 |
| Sector Coverage | Domestic Aviation, Industry, Power |
| Currency | Euro |
| Auction Frequency | Weekly |
| Cap | 1,209.3 MtCO2e |
| Annual Cap Reduction | 4.3% in 2024, known as the Linear Reduction Factor (LRF); 4.4% starting in 2028 |
| TNAC | 1,111.7 MtCO2e |
| Total revenue since start | $206.0 billion since 2013 |
| Governing Organization | European Commission & relevant EU member state authorities |
| Evaluation / ETS Review | The European Commission publishes annual reports on the functioning of the European carbon market (2021 report) |
| GHG Reduction Targets | BY 2030: At least 55% below 1990 GHG levels (Fit for 55 Proposal); BY 2050: Climate neutrality |
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